Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture (Conab) is projecting a record soybean harvest of 177.6 million metric tons in 2025-26 — or about 6.53 billion bushels — along with a larger planted area for the crop, at just over 121 million acres.

If the numbers hold up, it will represent a 3.6% increase in production and a matching 3.6% increase in planted acres. 

″The growth in planted area is driven by the continued profitability of the crop, the availability of land for expansion, and favorable weather in most regions,″ Conab’s latest grain harvest bulletin stated. 

Similarly, Conab forecasts total planted area for grain is expected to grow 3.3% from the previous cycle, reaching 208.5 million acres. According to Conab, Brazil’s Center-West region continues to lead production, accounting for roughly 49% of the country’s total. 

″Favorable early rains have supported planting, though La Niña could shift rainfall patterns later in the cycle,″ the outlook stated. 

Strong exports expected

Conab said domestic demand remains strong from Brazil’s soy crushing industry — driven by biodiesel and meal exports — while international demand, particularly from China, continues to support their export potential.

″With expectations of reduced U.S. exports and rising global demand, combined with Brazil’s expanding production, a significant increase in Brazilian exports is anticipated,″ Conab wrote.

The report projects that Brazil will continue as the world’s largest soybean exporter, potentially surpassing 112.11 million metric tons in exports. Conab went on to say that despite logistical challenges, investments in transportation infrastructure and new port capacity are helping Brazil maintain export competitiveness.

Brazil’s strong harvest totals have given China the ability to hold off on buying U.S. soybeans, according to Michigan Farm Bureau Lead Economist Loren Koeman. 

″China has been turning toward Brazil as their major supplier for years now,″ Koeman noted. ″But Brazil isn't going to have enough beans to supply China's demand.″

Corn forecast falls slightly

Conab projects corn production to fall by 1.8% to 138 million metric tons in 2025-26 but noted strong demand from ethanol production in projecting corn exports to grow by more than 15% to 46.5 million metric tons. 

The report notes the decrease in production ″reflects the exceptionally high productivity achieved in 2024-25, which benefited from very favorable weather.  By Jon Adamy, Farm News Media

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